Displaying results 1 - 5 of 5
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Sequential Bayesian Inference for Detection and Response to Seasonal Epidemics
Content Type: Abstract
Detection and response to seasonal outbreaks of endemic diseases provides an excellent testbed for quantitative bio-surveillance. As a case study we focus on annual influenza outbreaks. To incorporate observed year-over-year variation in flu… read more -
Tau-leaped Particle Learning
Content Type: Abstract
Development of effective policy interventions to stem disease outbreaks requires knowledge of the current state of affairs, e.g. how many individuals are currently infected, a strain’s virulence, etc, as well as our uncertainty of these values. A… read more -
Optimal sequential management decisions for influenza outbreaks
Content Type: Abstract
Management policies for influenza outbreaks balance the expected morbidity and mortality costs versus the cost of intervention policies under outbreak parameter uncertainty. Previous approaches have not updated parameter estimates as data arrives… read more -
Optimal sequential management decisions for measles outbreaks
Content Type: Abstract
Optimal sequential management of disease outbreaks has been shown to dramatically improve the realized outbreak costs when the number of newly infected and recovered individuals is assumed to be known (1,2). This assumption has been relaxed so that… read more -
Computational Method for Epidemic Detection in Multiple populations
Content Type: Abstract
Currently Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) employ threshold rules to declare epidemic outbreaks, such as influenza, separately in each population. However each year influenza starts in one population and spreads population-to-… read more