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Optimal sequential management decisions for measles outbreaks


Optimal sequential management of disease outbreaks has been shown to dramatically improve the realized outbreak costs when the number of newly infected and recovered individuals is assumed to be known (1,2). This assumption has been relaxed so that infected and recovered individuals are sampled and therefore the rate of information gain about the infectiousness and morbidity of a particular outbreak is proportional to the sampling rate (3). We study the effect of no recovered sampling and signal delay, features common to surveillance systems, on the costs associated with an outbreak.


Development of general methodology for optimal decisions during disease outbreaks that incorporate uncertainty in both parameters governing the outbreak and the current outbreak state in terms of the number of current infected, immune, and susceptible individuals.

Submitted by elamb on