Displaying results 1 - 5 of 5
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in silico Surveillance: Highly detailed agent-based models for surveillance system evaluation and design
Content Type: Abstract
Modern public health surveillance systems have great potential for improving public health. However, evaluating the performance of surveillance systems is challenging because examples of baseline disease distribution in the population are limited to… read more… and complete history of disease progression for all individuals in the population; those who are in a … the different surveillance systems. Increased coverage did not linearly improve detection probability for all … systems with uniform coverage of the population did not perform better than one based on a real-world system … -
Empirical/Asymptotic P-Values for Monte Carlo-Based Hypothesis Testing: An Application to Cluster Detection Using the Scan Statistic
Content Type: Abstract
SaTScan is a freely available software that uses the scan statistic to detect clusters in space, time or space-time. SaTScan uses Monte Carlo hypothesis testing in order to produce a p-value for the null hypothesis that no… read more… 999 replicates the maximum log- likelihood ratio, among all distinct circles, is the sta- tistic reported. The … including the Gamma, Normal, and Lognormal, all resulted in biased p-values. Interest- ingly, the … Communications in Sta- tistics: Theory and Methods, 1997. 26: p. 1481-1496. [3] Gumbel, EJ, Statistics of Extremes. … -
Nurse Call Data for Detection of Influenza-Like Illness
Content Type: Abstract
Influenza affects millions of people and causes about 36,000 deaths in the United States each winter. Pandemics of influenza emerge at irregular intervals. National influenza surveillance is used to detect the emergence and spread of influenza virus… read more… 3 views Submitted by elamb on Tue, 03/26/2019 - 16:22 … isolates, percentage ILI, or both indica- tors for all regions. The peak week for calls fell within one week of … illness in ambulatory care setting. erg Infect Dis 2004;10:1806-11. ] Ritzwoller DP, Kleinman K, Palen TE, … -
Evaluating Outbreak-Detection Methods Using Simulations: Volume Under the Time-ROC Surface
Content Type: Abstract
There are many proposed methods of identifying outbreaks of disease in surveillance data. However, there is little agreement about appropriate ways to choose amongst them. One common basis for comparison is simulating outbreaks and adding the simu… read more… of 1 suggests perfect sensitivity and specificity, with all the signals generated at the first possible moment. A … can be weighted to ascribe more importance to early de- tection. To avoid notation, we provide only a heuristic de- scription of each method. 1) The ‘tent’ method be- gins … -
Multi-Method Comparison of Detecting Common Events of Public Health Interest: a Multi-Site, Multi-Stream Simulation Study
Content Type: Abstract
Existing statistical methods can perform well in detecting simulated bioterrorism events. However, these methods have not been well-evaluated for detection of the type of respiratory and gastrointestinal events of greatest… read more… Existing statistical methods can perform well in de- tecting simulated bioterrorism events [1]. However, these methods have not been well-evaluated for de- tection of the type of respiratory and gastrointestinal … signal extent was nearly as good as the best method in all cases. Table 2: Results Sim. Best method WROC (max = 1) …