Displaying results 1 - 3 of 3
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An Outbreak Detection Algorithm that Efficiently Performs Complete Bayesian Model Averaging Over All Possible Spatial Distributions of Disease
Content Type: Abstract
Many disease-outbreak detection algorithms, such as control chart methods, use frequentist statistical techniques. We describe a Bayesian algorithm that uses data D consisting of current day counts of some event (e.g., emergency department (ED)… read more… an- thrax outbreaks described in [1]. Each outbreak con- sisted of a simulated time series of patient cases that each presented to an ED with a respiratory chief com- plaint and a home zip code. The probability that a case … in Artificial Intelli- gence (2004) 94-104. [2] http://www.dbmi.pitt.edu/panda/papers/Shen/ISDS07.pdf Advances in … -
Modeling Clinician Detection Time of a Disease Outbreak Due to Inhalational Anthrax
Content Type: Abstract
We developed a probabilistic model of how clinicians are expected to detect a disease outbreak due to an outdoor release of anthrax spores, when the clinicians only have access to traditional clinical information (e.g., no computer-based alerts). We… read more… of the National Syndromic Surveil- lance Conference [CD-ROM]. Boston, MA: Fleetwood Multimedia, Inc.; 2004. Advances … -
A Generalization of the AMOC Curve
Content Type: Abstract
The Activity Monitoring Operating Characteristic (AMOC) curve is a useful and popular method for assessing the performance of algorithms that detect outbreaks of disease [1]. As it is typically applied in biosurveillance, the AMOC curve plots the… read more… out- break on the ith case; each possible value of i is con- sidered. For various values of p, we derived the EWT …