Modeling

The National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) comprises many activities including collaborations, processes, standards, and systems which support gathering data from US states and territories. As part of NNDSS, the National Electronic Disease Surveillance System (NEDSS) provides the standards, tools, and resources to support reporting public health jurisdictions (jurisdictions). The NEDSS Base System (NBS) is a CDC-developed, software application available to jurisdictions to collect, manage, analyze and report national notifiable disease (NND) data. An evaluation of NEDSS with the objective of identifying the functionalities of NC systems and the impact of these features on the user’s culture is underway.

Objective

The culture by which public health professionals work defines their organizational objectives, expectations, policies, and values. These aspects of culture are often intangible and difficult to qualify. The introduction of an information system could further complicate the culture of a jurisdiction if the intangibles of a culture are not clearly understood. This report describes how cultural modeling can be used to capture intangible elements or factors that may affect NEDSS-compatible (NC) system functionalities within the culture of public health jurisdictions.

Population surges or large events may cause shift of data collected by biosurveillance systems [1]. For example, the Cherry Blossom Festival brings hundreds of thousands of people to DC every year, which results in simultaneous elevations in multiple data streams (Fig. 1). In this paper, we propose an MGD model to accommodate the needs of dealing with baseline shifts.

Objective:

Outbreak detection algorithms monitoring only disease-relevant data streams may be prone to false alarms due to baseline shifts. In this paper, we propose a Multinomial-Generalized-Dirichlet (MGD) model to adjust for baseline shifts.

 

Effective responses to epidemics of infectious diseases hinge not only on early outbreak detection, but also on an assessment of disease severity. In recent work, we combined previously developed ARI case-detection algorithms (CDA) [1] with text analyses of chest imaging reports to identify ARI patients whose providers thought had pneumonia. In this work, we asked if a surveillance system aimed at patients with pneumonia would outperform one that monitors the full severity spectrum of ARI.

Objective

To determine if influenza surveillance should target all patients with acute respiratory infections (ARI) or only track pneumonia cases.

 

Health surveillance systems provide important functionalities to detect, monitor, respond, prevent, and report on a variety of conditions across multiple owners. They offer important capabilities, with some of the most fundamental including data warehousing and transfer, descriptive statistics, geographic analysis, and data mining and querying. We observe that while there is significant variety among surveillance systems, many may still report duplicative data sources, use basic forms of analysis, and provide rudimentary functionality.

Objective

To identify analytic gaps and duplication across U.S. government, international agencies, non-profit and academic health surveillance systems, programs, and initiatives in four areas: Analytics, Data Sources, Statistics, and System Requirements.

 

The Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) has predicted around 43 million pneumonia cases in India. It is recognized that for huge nation like India, which accounts for 23% of global pneumonia burden, the national estimates may hide regional disparities. In this context, we have generated Indian state specific burden of severe pneumonia, pneumococcal pneumonia and pneumonia deaths through use of mathematical model.

Objective

This presentation highlights the use of mathematical model to estimate burden of disease in absence surveillance data. We estimated the burden of severe pneumonia, pneumococcal pneumonia and pneumonia deaths in Indian states using a mathematical model through application of vaccine probe methodology and attributable fraction.

Standardized electronic pre-diagnostic information is routinely collected in Alberta, Canada. ARTSSN is an automated real-time surveillance data repository able to rapidly refresh data that include school absenteeism information, calls about health concerns from Health Link Alberta; a provincial telephone service for health advice and information, and emergency department visits categorized by standardized chief complaint. Until recently, real-time ARTSSN data for public health surveillance and decision making has been underutilized.

Objective

We developed early warning algorithms using data from ARTSSN and used them to detect signatures of potential pandemics and provide regular weekly forecasts on influenza trends in Alberta during 2012-2014.

Syndromic surveillance information can be a useful for the early recognition of outbreaks, acute public health events and in response to natural disasters. Inhalation of particulate matter from wildland fire smoke has been linked to various acute respiratory and cardiovascular health effects. Historically, wildfire disasters occur across Southern California on a recurring basis. During 2003 and 2007, wildfires ravaged San Diego County and resulted in historic levels of population evacuation, significant impact on air quality and loss of lives and infrastructure. In 2011, the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences awarded Michigan Tech Research Institute a grant to address the impact of fire emissions on human health, within the context of a changing climate. San Diego County Public Health Services assisted on this project through assessment of population health impacts and provisioning of syndromic surveillance data for advanced modeling.

Objective

This presentation describes how syndromic surveillance information was combined with fire emission information and spatio-temporal fire occurrence data to evaluate, model and forecast climate change impacts on future fire scenarios.