Algorithm

Many disease-outbreak detection algorithms, such as control chart methods, use frequentist statistical techniques. We describe a Bayesian algorithm that uses data D consisting of current day counts of some event (e.g., emergency department (ED) chief complaints of respiratory disease) that are tallied according to demographic area (e.g., zip codes).

Objective

We introduce a disease-outbreak detection algorithm that performs complete Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) over all possible spatial distributions of disease, yet runs in polynomial time.

As major disease outbreaks are rare, empirical evaluation of statistical methods for outbreak detection requires the use of modified or completely simulated health event data in addition to real data. Comparisons of different techniques will be more reliable when they are evaluated on the same sets of artificial and real data. To this end, we are developing a toolkit for implementing and evaluating outbreak detection methods and exposing this framework via a web services interface.

A comprehensive definition of a syndrome is composed of direct (911 calls, emergency departments, primary care providers, sensor, veterinary, agricultural and animal data) and indirect evidence (data from schools, drug stores, weather etc.). Syndromic surveillance will benefit from quickly integrating such data. There are three critical areas to address to build an effective syndromic surveillance system that is dynamic, organic and alert, capable of continuous growth, adaptability and vigilance: (1) timely collection of high quality data (2) timely integration and analysis of information (data in context) (3) applying innovative thinking and deriving deep insights from information analysis. In our view there is excessive emphasis on algorithms and applications to work on the collected data and insufficient emphasis on solving the integration challenges. Therefore, this paper is focused on information integration.

Objective

EII is the virtual consolidation of data from multiple systems into a unified, consistent and accurate representation. An analyst working in an EII environment can simultaneously view and analyze data from multiple data sources as if it were coming from one large local data warehouse. This paper posits that EII is a viable solution to implement a system covering large areas and disparate data sources for syndromic surveillance and discusses case studies from environments external to health.

Ideal anomaly detection algorithms shoulddetect both sudden and gradual changes, while keeping the background false positive alert rate at a tolerable level. The algorithms should also be easy to use. Our objective was to develop an anomaly detection algorithm that adapts to the time series being analyzed and reduces false positive signals.

This paper explores some visualization methods for characterizing spatial signals detected by SaTScan and discusses how these maps might aid in deciding whether to investigate a signal, as well as the scope and focus of the investigation.

In this paper we investigate the use of the CUSUM algorithm on retrospective MMR and Pentacel (DTaP-IPV-Hib) immunization data to determine if this type of surveillance tool is useful for measuring changes in immunization rates.

The purpose of this study is to depict a local county health departmentís analysis and dissemination algorithm of surveillance system (SS) aberration (alarm) to designated stakeholders within the community.

This paper describes a Bayesian algorithm for diagnosing the CDC Category A diseases, namely, anthrax, smallpox, tularemia, botulism and hemorrhagic fever, using emergency department chief complaints. The algorithm was evaluated on real data and on semi-synthetic data, and this paper summarizes the results of that evaluation.