Monitoring Respiratory Syncytial Virus Regionally In Children Aged < 5 Years Old Using Emergency Department and Urgent Care Center Chief Complaint Data in Florida’s Syndromic Surveillance System, Week 1, 2010 - Week 32, 2014

National studies estimate that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is responsible for one in 38 emergency department (ED) visits for children < 5 years old. The Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists position statement (13-ID-07): “RSV-Associated Pediatric Mortality” advocates for improved RSV surveillance including monitoring of RSV-associated pediatric mortality and hospitalizations. The goal of that data collection is to establish prevaccine baselines to evaluate vaccine effectiveness should one become available.

November 22, 2017

Seasonal Patterns in Syndromic Surveillance Emergency Department Data due to Respiratory Illnesses

Monitoring trends of respiratory illnesses via syndromic surveillance in SC is performed on a daily basis. SC Syndromic Surveillance primarily utilizes emergency department data, and provides situational awareness regarding broad syndrome categories among hospitals in the state. Respiratory illnesses represent a significant public health burden, causing the second highest number of outbreaks reported in SC.

May 02, 2019

Sequential Bayesian Inference for Detection and Response to Seasonal Epidemics

Detection and response to seasonal outbreaks of endemic diseases provides an excellent testbed for quantitative bio-surveillance. As a case study we focus on annual influenza outbreaks. To incorporate observed year-over-year variation in flu incidence cases and timing of outbreaks, we analyze a stochastic compartmental SIS model that includes seasonal forcing by a latent Markovian factor. Epidemic detection then consists in identifying the presence of the environmental factor (“high” flu season), as well as estimation of the epidemic parameters, such as contact and recovery rates.

May 25, 2018

Estimating the number of deaths attributable to nine common infectious pathogens adjusted for seasonality and temperature

Accurately assigning causes or contributing causes to deaths remains a universal challenge, especially in the elderly with underlying disease. Cause of death statistics commonly record the underlying cause of death, and influenza deaths in winter are often attributed to underlying circulatory disorders. Estimating the number of deaths attributable to influenza is, therefore, usually performed using statistical models.

June 17, 2019

Incorporating seasonality and other long-term trends improves surveillance for acute respiratory infections

As the electronic medical record (EMR) market matures, long-term time series of EMR-based surveillance data are becoming available. In this work, we hypothesized that statistical aberrancy-detection methods that incorporate seasonality and other long-term data trends reduce the time required to discover an influenza outbreak compared with methods that only consider the most recent past.

June 18, 2019

Asthma patterns in Boston emergency department visits for children age five and under

The burden of asthma on the youngest children in Boston is largely characterized through hospitalizations and self-report surveys. Hospitalization rates are highest in Black and Hispanic populations under age five. A study of children living in Boston public housing showed significant risk factors, including obesity and pest infestation, with less than half of the study population being prescribed daily medication.

June 18, 2019

The spatial-temporal pattern of excess influenza visits at the (sub-)urban scale

Quantifying the spatial-temporal diffusion of diseases such as seasonal influenza is difficult at the urban scale for a variety of reasons including the low specificity of the extant data, the heterogenous nature of healthcare seeking behavior and the speed with which diseases spread throughout the city. Nevertheless, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene’s syndromic surveillance system attempts to detect spatial clusters resulting from outbreaks of influenza.

June 20, 2019

Using influenza rapid test positivity as an early indicator for the onset of seasonal influenza

Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality, with attendant costs of roughly $10 billion for treatment and up to $77 billion in indirect costs annually. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducts annual influenza surveillance, and includes measures of inpatient and outpatient influenza-related activity, disease severity, and geographic spread. However, inherent lags in the current methods used for data collection and transmission result in a one to two weeks delay in notification of an outbreak via the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website. Early notific

June 27, 2019

Enteric Disease Surveillance: Seasonal Changes in Population Profiles

In the last decade, time series analysis has become one of the most important tools of surveillance systems. Understanding the nature of temporal fluctuations is essential for successful development of outbreak detection algorithms, aberration assessment, and to control for seasonal variations. Typically, in applying the time series methods to health outcomes collected over an extended period of time it is assumed that population profiles remain constant. In practice, such assumptions have been rarely tested.

July 30, 2018

Indications and Warning of Pandemic Influenza Compared to Seasonal Influenza

If the next influenza pandemic emerges in Southeast Asia, the identification of early detection strategies in this region could enable public health officials to respond rapidly. Accurate, real-time influenza surveillance is therefore crucial. Novel approaches to the monitoring of infectious disease, especially respiratory disease, are increasingly under evaluation in an effort to avoid the cost- and timeintensive nature of active surveillance, as well as the processing time lag of traditional passive surveillance.

July 30, 2018

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