Outbreak Detection

A large part of the applied research on syndromic surveillance targets seasonal epidemics, e.g. influenza, winter vomiting disease, rotavirus and RSV, in particular when dealing with preclinical indicators, e.g. web traffic. The research on local outbreak surveillance is more limited. Two studies of teletriage data (NHS Direct) have shown positive and negative results respectively. Studies of OTC pharmacy sales have reported similar equivocal performance. As far as we know, no systematic comparison of data sources with respect to multiple point-source outbreaks has so far been published. In the current study, we evaluated the potential of three data sources for syndromic surveillance by analyzing the correspondence between signal properties and point-source outbreak characteristics.

Objective

For the purpose of developing a national system of outbreak surveillance, we compared local outbreak signals in three sources of syndromic data – telephone triage of acute gastroenteritis (Swedish Health Care Direct 1177), web queries about symptoms of gastrointestinal illness (Stockholm County’s website for healthcare information), and OTC pharmacy sales of anti-diarrhea medication.

Lessons learned from the 2009 influenza pandemic have driven many changes in the standards and practices of respiratory disease surveillance worldwide. In response to the needs for timely information sharing of emerging respiratory pathogens (1), the DoD Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center (AFHSC) collaborated with the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) to develop an Internet-based data management system known as the Respiratory Disease Dashboard (RDD). The goal of the RDD is to provide the AFHSC global respiratory disease surveillance network a centralized system for the monitoring and tracking of lab-confirmed respiratory pathogens, thereby streamlining the data reporting process and enhancing the timeliness for detection of potential pandemic threats. This system consists of a password-protected internet portal that allows users to directly input respiratory specimen data and visualize data on an interactive, global map. Currently, eight DoD partner laboratories are actively entering respiratory pathogen data into the RDD, encompassing specimens from sentinel sites in eleven countries: Cambodia, Colombia, Kenya, Ecuador, Egypt, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, Uganda, and the United States. A user satisfaction survey was conducted to guide further development of the RDD and to support other disease surveillance efforts at the AFHSC.

Objective

Evaluate the user experience of a novel electronic disease reporting and analysis system deployed across the DoD global laboratory surveillance network.

Mayotte Island, a French overseas department of around 374 km2 and 200 000 inhabitants is located in the North of Mozambique Channel in the Indian Ocean (Figure1). In response to the threat of the pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 virus emergence, a syndromic surveillance system has been implemented in order to monitor its spread and its impact on public health (1). This surveillance system which proved to be useful during the influenza pandemic, has been maintained in order to detect infection diseases outbreaks.

Objective

To present the usefulness of syndromic surveillance for the detection of infectious diseases outbreak in small islands, based on the experience of Mayotte.

There has been much research on statistical methods of prospective outbreak detection that are aimed at identifying unusual clusters of one syndrome or disease, and some work on multivariate surveillance methods. In England and Wales, automated laboratory surveillance of infectious diseases has been undertaken since the early 1990’s. The statistical methodology of this automated system is described in. However, there has been little research on outbreak detection methods that are suited to large, multiple surveillance systems involving thousands of different organisms.

Objective

To look at the diversity of the patterns displayed by a range of organisms, and to seek a simple family of models that adequately describes all organisms, rather than a well-fitting model for any particular organism.

To meet the long-term needs of public health and social development of China, it is in urgency to establish a comprehensive response system and crisis management mechanism for public health emergencies. Syndromic surveillance system has great advantages in promoting early detection of epidemics and reducing the burden of disease outbreak confirmation. The effective method to set up the syndromic surveillance system is to modify existing case report system, improve the organizational structures and integrate new function with the traditional system.

Objective

To understand the structure and capacity of current infection disease surveillance system, and to provide baseline information for developing syndromic surveillance system in rural China.

Population surges or large events may cause shift of data collected by biosurveillance systems [1]. For example, the Cherry Blossom Festival brings hundreds of thousands of people to DC every year, which results in simultaneous elevations in multiple data streams (Fig. 1). In this paper, we propose an MGD model to accommodate the needs of dealing with baseline shifts.

Objective:

Outbreak detection algorithms monitoring only disease-relevant data streams may be prone to false alarms due to baseline shifts. In this paper, we propose a Multinomial-Generalized-Dirichlet (MGD) model to adjust for baseline shifts.

 

The multivariate linear-time subset scan (MLTSS) extends previous spatial and subset scanning methods  to achieve timely and accurate event detection in massive multivariate datasets, efficiently optimizing a likelihood ratio statistic over proximity-constrained subsets of locations and all subsets of the monitored data streams. However, some disease outbreaks may only affect a subpopulation of the monitored population (age group, gender, individuals engaging in a specific high-risk behavior, etc.), and MLTSS is unable to use this additional information to enhance detection ability.

Objective

We present Multidimensional Subset Scan (MD-Scan), a new method for early outbreak detection and characterization using multivariate case data from individuals in a population. MD-Scan extends previous work on multivariate event detection by identifying the characteristics of the affected subpopulation, and enables more timely and accurate detection while maintaining computational tractability

Cholera causes frequent outbreaks in Nigeria, resulting in mortality. In 2010 and 2011, 41,936 cases (case fatality rate [CFR]-4.1%) and 23,366 cases (CFR-3.2%) were reported (1). Reported cases in Nigeria by week 26, 2012 was 309 (CFR-1.29%) involving 20 Local Government Areas in 6 States. In Nigeria, there are currently eleven (11) States including Niger state at high risk for cholera/bloodless diarrhea outbreaks. In 2011, Niger state had 2472 cholera cases (CFR-2%) and 45,111 other diarrhea diseases cases, recorded in more than half of state Purpose of surveillance system is to ensure early detection of cholera and other diarrheal cases and to monitor trends towards evidencebased decision for management, prevention and control.

Objective:

To determine how the cholera and other diarrheal disease surveillance system in Niger state is meeting its surveillance objectives, to evaluate its performance and attributes and to describe its operation to make recommendations for improvement.

 

North Carolina hosted the 2012 Democratic National Convention, September 3-6, 2012. The NC Epidemiology and Surveillance Team was created to facilitate enhanced surveillance for injuries and illnesses, early detection of outbreaks during the DNC, assist local public health with epidemiologic investigations and response, and produce daily surveillance reports for internal and external stakeholders. Surveillane data were collected from several data sources, including North Carolina Electronic Disease Surveillance System (NC EDSS), triage stations, and the North Carolina Disease Event Tracking and Epidemiologic Collection Tool (NC DETECT). NC DETECT was created by the North Carolina Division of Public Health (NC DPH) in 2004 in collaboration with the Carolina Center for Health Informatics (CCHI) in the UNC Department of Emergency Medicine to address the need for early event detection and timely public health surveillance in North Carolina using a variety of secondary data sources. The data from emergency departments, the Carolinas Poison Center, the Pre-hospital Medical Information System (PreMIS) and selected Urgent Care Centers were available for monitoring by authorized users during the DNC.

Objective:

To describe how the existing state syndromic surveillance system (NC DETECT) was enhanced to facilitate surveillance conducted at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina from August 31, 2012 to September 10, 2012.

 

The choice of outbreak detection algorithm and its configuration can result in important variations in the performance of public health surveillance systems. Our work aims to characterize the performance of detectors based on outbreak types. We are using Bayesian networks (BN) to model the relationships between determinants of outbreak detection and the detection performance based on a significant study on simulated data.

Objective

To predict the performance of outbreak detection algorithms under different circumstances which will guide the method selection and algorithm configuration in surveillance systems, to characterize the dependence of the performance of detection algorithms on the type and severity of outbreak, to develop quantitative evidence about determinants of detection performance.