Applications of Likelihood-based inference with non-mechanistic and mechanistic models in infectious disease modeling

Presented June 21, 2019.

In this talk, Dr. Daihai He presents his recent works on applications of likelihood-based inference with non-mechanistic and mechanistic models in infectious disease modeling. Examples include modeling of the transmission of influenza, measles, yellow-fever virus, Zika virus, and Lassa-fever virus. Combined non-mechanistic and mechanistic models, we gain new insight into the mechanisms under the transmission of infectious diseases. 

June 21, 2019

Enhancing Syndromic Surveillance with Procedure Data: A 2017-8 Influenza Case Study

Syndromic surveillance achieves timeliness by collecting prediagnostic data, such as emergency department chief complaints, from the start of healthcare interactions. The tradeoff is less precision than from diagnosis data, which takes longer to generate. As the use and sophistication of electronic health information systems increases, additional data that provide an intermediate balance of timeliness and precision are becoming available. Information about the procedures and treatments ordered for a patient can indicate what diagnoses are being considered.

June 18, 2019

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks in Ghana.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 virus causes a highly contagious disease in poultry with up to 100% mortality and occasionally causes sporadic human infection. The first outbreak of HPAI H5N1 in Africa was reported in Nigeria in 2006 and has since been reported in seven other African countries with confirmed human cases and outbreaks in poultry.

June 18, 2019

Exploring Drug Overdose Mortality Data in Harris County, Texas

Drug overdose mortality is a growing problem in the United States. In 2017 alone over 72,000 deaths were attributed to drug overdose, most of which were caused by fentanyl and fentanyl analogs (synthetic opioids). While nearly every community has seen an increase in drug overdose, there is considerable variation in the degree of increase in specific communities. The Harris County community, which includes the City of Houston, has not seen the massive spikes observed in some communities, such as West Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio.

June 18, 2019

Streamlined Development of Analytic Fusion Capability for Health Surveillance

The motivation for this project is to provide greater situational awareness to DoD epidemiologists monitoring the health of military personnel and their dependents. An increasing number of data sources of varying clinical specificity and timeliness are available to the staff. The challenge is to integrate all the information for a coherent, up-to-date view of population health.

June 18, 2019

Forming Collaborations through the Data Quality Committee to Address Urgent Incidents

On November 20, 2017, several sites participating in the NSSP reported anomalies in their syndromic data. Upon review, it was found that between November 17-18, an EHR vendor’s syndromic product experienced an outage and errors in processing data. The ISDS DQC, NSSP, a large EHR vendor, and many of the affected sites worked together to identify the core issues, evaluate ramifications, and formulate solutions to provide to the entire NSSP CoP.

June 18, 2019

Supervised Learning for Automated Infectious-Disease-Outbreak Detection

Within the traditional surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases in Germany, not only are individual cases reported to the Robert Koch Institute, but also outbreaks themselves are recorded: A label is assigned by epidemiologists to each case, indicating whether it is part of an outbreak and of which. This expert knowledge represents, in the language of machine leaning, a "ground truth" for the algorithmic task of detecting outbreaks from a stream of surveillance data.

June 18, 2019

Identifying High-Risk Areas for Dengue Infection Using Mobility Patterns on Twitter

Traditionally, surveillance systems for dengue and other infectious diseases locate each individual case by home address, aggregate these locations to small areas, and monitor the number of cases in each area over time. However, human mobility plays a key role in dengue transmission, especially due to the mosquito day-biting habit, and relying solely on individuals' residential address as a proxy for dengue infection ignores a multitude of exposures that individuals are subjected to during their daily routines.

June 18, 2019

Systematic Review: National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System in China

Infectious disease was the second most common cause of death in 1949, and the epidemic situation of infectious diseases was so severe that the Chinese government made major investments to the control and prevention of infectious diseases. During the past 60 years the development of the notifiable disease surveillance system in China has experienced 3 phases, including germination stage, development stage, improvement and consolidation stage (1).

June 18, 2019

Improving Varicella Investigation Completeness in Pennsylvania

Routine childhood administration of varicella-containing vaccine has resulted in the number of varicella (chickenpox) cases in Pennsylvania falling from nearly 3,000 cases in 2007 to less than 400 cases in 2017. Prior to 2018, the completeness of varicella case investigation data documented in Pennsylvania's electronic disease surveillance system (PA-NEDSS) was not routinely monitored by Department of Health (DOH) staff. A pilot project was initiated in April 2018 to monitor and improve completeness of select varicella case investigation variables.

June 18, 2019


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