Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease, and there is considerable evidence that case numbers are rising and geographical distribution of the disease is widening within the United States, and around the world.
The accuracy and reporting frequency of dengue morbidity and mortality information varies geographically, and often is an underestimation of the actual number of dengue infections. As traditional methods of disease surveillance may not accurately capture the true impact of this disease, it is important to gather professional observations and opinions from individuals in the public health, medical, and vector control fields of practice. Prediction markets are one way of supplementing traditional surveillance and quantifying the observations and predictions of professionals in the field.
Prediction markets have been successfully used to forecast future events, including future influenza activity. For these markets, we divided the possible outcomes for each question into multiple mutually exclusive contracts to forecast dengue-related events. This differed from many previous prediction markets that offered single sets of yes-no questions and used ‘real’ money in the form of educational grants. However, with more detailed contracts, we were able to generate more refined predictions of dengue activity.
Objective
The objective of this project is to use prediction markets to forecast the spread of dengue.