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Chumachenko Tetyana

Climate warming, globalization, social and economic crises lead to the activation of natural foci of vector-borne infections, among which a special place belongs to Lyme disease (Ixodic tick borreliosis – ITB), the vectors of which are the Ixodes ticks. More than 5,000 cases are registered in the United States every year. In European countries, the number of cases may reach up to 8,000-10,000 per year. Incidence rate for ITB in France is 39.4 per 100,000 population, in Bulgaria – 36.6. In Ukraine, among all ticks, 10-70% are infected with Borrelia; from 10% to 42.2% of Ukrainian population had contact with the causative agent of ITB. Mathematical modeling as an element of monitoring of natural focal infections makes it possible to assess the epidemiological potential of foci in the region and in individual territories, to forecast the trends of the epidemic process and to determine the main priorities and directions in the prevention of ITB. The most modern and effective method of simulation is multi-agent simulation, which is associated with the concept of an intelligent agent, as some robot, purposefully interacting with other similar elements and the external environment under given conditions. An intelligent agent is an imitation model of an active element, the state and behavior of which in various situations of achieving the goal vary depending on the state and behavior of other agents and the environment, in analogy with the intellectual behavior of a live organism (including a human) under similar conditions. As the epidemic process of Lyme disease is characterized by vector transmission, heterogeneous tick population, variable pathogen infectivity, heterogeneous environment, and seasonal changes in tick activity, the use of classical statistical methods for predicting the dynamics of morbidity cannot show high accuracy. The multiagent approach to simulation of the epidemic process of Lyme disease allows considering all of the above features, and since the dynamics of the modeled system is formed from the behavior of local objects (humans and ticks), we expect that a model constructed using a multiagent approach will yield a higher accuracy of prognosis morbidity. The multiagent model will allow not only to calculate the forecast, but also to reveal the factors influencing increase of the incidence of Lyme disease the most.

Objective: The objective of this research is to develop the model for calculating the forecast of the Lyme disease dynamics what will help to take effective preventive and control measures using the intelligent multi-agent approach.

Submitted by elamb on

As part of the United States Department of Defense strategy to counter biological threats, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s biological threat reduction program is enhancing the capabilities of countries in the former Soviet Union (FSU) to detect, diagnose, and report endemic and epidemic, manmade or natural cases of especially dangerous pathogens. During these engagements, it is noted that Western-trained and Soviet-trained epidemiologists have difficulty, beyond that of simple translation, in exchanging ideas. 

Before 1991, infectious disease surveillance in the FSU was centrally planned in Moscow. The methodologies of infectious disease surveillance and data analysis have remained almost unaltered since this time in most nations of the FSU. Vlassov describes that FSU physicians and other specialists are not taught epidemiology as it is understood in the West. The Soviet public health system and the scientific discipline of epidemiology developed independently of that of other nations. Consequently, many fundamental Soviet terms and concepts lack simple correlates in English and other languages outside the Soviet sphere; the same is true when attempting to translate from English to Russian and other languages of the FSU. Systematic review of the differences in FSU and Western epidemiologic concepts and terminology is therefore needed for international public health efforts, such as disease surveillance, compliance with International Health Regulations 2005, pandemic preparedness, and response to biological terrorism. A multi-language reference in the form of a dictionary would greatly improve mutual comprehension among epidemiologists in the West and the FSU.

 

Objective

The objective of this study is to describe the development of a multilingual lexicon of epidemiology, which is needed for improved communication in public health surveillance internationally.

Referenced File
Submitted by hparton on

Viral hepatitis is a global public health problem affecting millions of people every year, causing disability and death [1].The hepatitis B virus (HBV) is transmitted through the contact with the blood or other body fluids of an infected person. For formulating evidence-based policy of Public Health and data for action we should know about main ways of transmission HBV and population group with high risk of infection.

Objective

To develop model to study risk factors for hepatitis B (HB) and to identify the main causes affecting the incidence of HB.

Submitted by knowledge_repo… on

The standard approaches to simulation include solving of differential equation systems. Such approach is good for obtaining general picture of epidemics (1, 2). When the detailed analysis of epidemics reasons is needed such model becomes insufficient. To overcome the limitations of standard approaches a new one has been offered. The multiagent approach has been offered to be used for representation of the society. Methods of event-driven programming give essential benefits of the processing time of the events (3).

Objective:

To develop multiagent model of hepatitis B (HBV) infection spreading.

 

Submitted by Magou on

As part of the US Department of Defense strategy to counter biological threats, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Cooperative Biological Engagement Program is enhancing the capabilities of countries in the former Soviet Union (FSU) to detect, diagnose, and report endemic and epidemic, man-made or natural cases of especially dangerous pathogens. During these engagements, it was noted that Western-trained and Soviet-trained epidemiologists have difficulty, beyond that of simple translation, in exchanging ideas.

The Soviet public health system and epidemiology developed independently of that of other nations. Whereas epidemiology in the West is thought of in terms of disease determinants in populations and relies on statistics to make inferences, classical Soviet epidemiology is founded on a more ecological view with the main focus on infectious diseases’ spread theory. Consequently many fundamental Soviet terms and concepts lack simple correlates in English and other languages outside the Soviet sphere; the same is true when attempting to translate from English to Russian and other languages of the FSU. Systematic review of the differences in FSU and Western epidemiologic concepts and terminology is therefore needed for strengthening understanding and collaboration in disease surveillance, pandemic preparedness, response to biological terrorism, etc.

 

Objective

The purpose of this project was to develop an English-Russian Epidemiology Dictionary, which is needed for improved international collaboration in public health surveillance.

Submitted by hparton on

Deterioration of socio-economic conditions in Ukraine created a threat of the spread of communicable diseases, including vaccine preventable diseases. Children in Ukraine routinely receive two doses of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine according to the national immunization schedule. Measles is targeted for elimination in Ukraine. But now Ukraine crisis carries significant public health risk and requires changing tactics of surveillance and epidemiological control against measles.

Objective

To estimate the current measles situation in the Kharkiv oblast (eastern region of Ukraine) and to develop ways of improving the surveillance and control of measles in elimination phase during the crisis in Ukraine.

Submitted by teresa.hamby@d… on

Every year nearly 12 million new cases of syphilis in the world are registered. Currently, in many countries of the world the stabilization or even reduction of the incidence of syphilis is marked, but this does not apply to Ukraine. The current stage of development of the syphilis problem in Ukraine is characterized by not only high morbidity, but also the fact that in the overwhelming number of cases, we are talking about the latent forms and atypical manifestations of the disease and resistance to therapy [1]. Preventive and prophylactic measures are important in maintaining the public health. Predicting the dynamics of disease spreading allows developing appropriate countermeasures and ensuring rational use of human and material resources. Qualitative forecast of syphilis spreading is possible to implement by means of mathematical modeling. 

 

Submitted by uysz on
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