Detection of the signs of HIV epidemic transition from concentrated to generalized stage is an important issue for many countries including Ukraine. Objective and timely detection of the generalization of HIV epidemic is a significant factor for the development and implementation of appropriate preventive programs. As an additional method for estimating HIV epidemic stage, the spatial analysis of the reported new HIV cases among injection drug use (IDU) and other populations (due to sexual way of transmission) has been recommended. For studying new HIV cases in small societies, Relative Risk (RR) rates are preferred over incidence indicators. Spatial clustering based on the calculation of RR rates allows us to locate the high risk areas of HIV infection with greater accuracy. In our opinion, in the process of epidemic generalization the spatial divergence of epidemic will be observed as well. In particular, clusters with high RR of sexual HIV transmission independent from the clusters with high RR of injection HIV transmission may appear.
Objective
To investigate the utility of spatial analysis in the tracking of the stages of the HIV epidemic at an administrative territory level, using the Odessa region, Ukraine as an example.