Use of Time Series Models for Multi-Stream Surveillance

Surveillance of individual data streams is a well-accepted approach to monitor community incidence of infectious diseases such as influenza, and to enable timely detection of outbreaks so that control measures can be applied. However the performance of alerts may be improved by simultaneously monitor a variety of data sources, or multiple streams (eg from different geographic locations) of the same type, rather than monitoring only aggregate data. Rates of influenza-like illness in subtropical settings typically show greater variability than in temperate regions.

Objective

This paper describes the use of time series models for simultaneous monitoring of multiple streams of influenza surveillance data.