News media

Informal surveillance systems like HealthMap are effective at the early detection of outbreaks. However, reliance on informal sources such as news media makes the efficiency of these systems vulnerable to newsroom constraints, namely high-profile disease events drawing reporting resources at the expense of other potential outbreaks and diminished staff over weekends and holidays. To our knowledge, this effect on informal or syndromic surveillance systems has yet to be studied.

Objective

Reporting about large public health events may reduce effective disease surveillance by syndromic or informal surveillance systems. The goal is to determine to what extent this problem exists and characterize situations in which it is likely to occur.

While mass media coverage of bird flu often provides specific information that may prevent or contain the disease, it is often less than ideal; the public may become fearful and panic at the news of a potential outbreak of bird flu which has a high fatality case rate of more than 60% with no available proven vaccine while supplies of antivirals may be in short supply. As reported by Reuters (3/17/2006) using data from the CDC, a correlation was made between the intense media coverage of bird flu outbreaks overseas in the Fall of ‘05, and a ‘spike’ in sales of Tamiflu which was higher than at any other time over the previous 5 years; documented by syndromic surveillance of Medicaid scrips (NYS DOH), and retail pharmacy sales (NYC DOHMH), authorities suspect the drug was stockpiled.

Objective

To ascertain whether mass media reportage of bird flu outbreaks during the moderate US flu season of 2006-7 influenced sales of antivirals in NYC and Upstate NY as monitored by syndromic surveillance, and to compare such data to that generated during the moderate flu season of 2005-06 following a period of intense media coverage in the Fall of 2005.

If the next influenza pandemic emerges in Southeast Asia, the identification of early detection strategies in this region could enable public health officials to respond rapidly. Accurate, real-time influenza surveillance is therefore crucial. Novel approaches to the monitoring of infectious disease, especially respiratory disease, are increasingly under evaluation in an effort to avoid the cost- and timeintensive nature of active surveillance, as well as the processing time lag of traditional passive surveillance. In response to these issues, we have developed an indications and warning (I&W) taxonomy of pandemic influenza based on social disruption indicators reported in news media.

Objective

Our aim is to analyze news media for I&W of influenza to determine if the signals they create differ significantly between seasonal and pandemic influenza years.

While traditional means of surveillance by governments, multi-national agencies, and institutional networks assist in reporting and confirming infectious disease outbreaks, these formal sources of information are limited by their geographic coverage and timeliness of information flow. In contrast, rapid global reach of electronic communication has resulted in the advent of informal sources of information on outbreaks. Informal resources include discussion sites, online news media, individual and organization reports and even individual search records. The earliest descriptions of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Guangdon Province, south China came from informal reports. However, system development to date has been geared toward knowledge management and strategies for interpreting these data are underdeveloped. There is a need to move from simple knowledge reorganization to an analytic approach for disseminating timely yet specific signals.

Objective

Internet-based resources such as discussion sites and online news sources have become invaluable sources for a new wave of surveillance systems. The WHO relies on these informal sources for about 65% of their outbreak investigations. Despite widespread use of unstructured information there has been little, if any, data evaluation.

Timely surveillance of disease outbreak events of public health concern currently requires detailed and time consuming manual analysis by experts. Recently in addition to traditional information sources, the World Wide Web has offered a new modality in surveillance, but the massive collection of multilingual texts which must be processed in real time presents an enormous challenge.

Objective

In this paper we present a summary of the BioCaster system architecture for Web rumour surveillance, the rationale for the choices made in the system design and an empirical evaluation of topic classification accuracy for a gold-standard of English and Vietnamese news.

In the past, the media has served a source of data for syndromic surveillance of infectious disease, whether it is outbreaks of disease in animals or humans resulting in illness or death.  More often than not, the reverse is true; data based on analyses of   syndromic surveillance often flows from hospital to local health departments and federal governmental agencies such as the CDC to the media which then relays it to the public. In both instances, the media may serve as a purveyor of vital information.  But, sometimes the media reports are less than ideal; the public may become fearful and panic at the news of a potential outbreak of an emerging infectious disease such as bird flu for which there is a high fatality case rate and no proven available vaccine, or curative therapy. Moreover, supplies of vaccine may be limited, and news of a shortage of antiviral medications such as Tamiflu may lead to stockpiling similar to what occurred with Cipro during the anthrax  ‘scare.’  

Objective:

This paper explores how the mass media covered bird flu outbreaks overseas in the Fall of 2005, and the nationís preparations for a possible bird flu pandemic, and how this period of intense media activity affected sales of antivirals in New City and New York State as monitored by syndromic surveillance techniques.