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Forecasting

The statistical process control (SPC) community has developed a wealth of robust, sensitive monitoring methods in the form of control charts [1]. Although such charts have been implemented for a wide variety of health monitoring purposes [2], some implementations monitor data that violate basic assumptions required by the control charts [3] yielding alerting methods with uncertain detection performance. This problem highlights an inherent obstacle to the use of traditional SPC methods for syndromic surveillance: the nature of the data. Syndromic data streams are based not on physical science, as are manufacturing processes, but on changing population behavior and evolving data acquisition and classification procedures. To overcome this obstacle, either more sophisticated detection algorithms must be developed or the data must be preconditioned so that it is appropriate for traditional monitoring tools. Objective: For robust detection performance, alerting algorithms for biosurveillance require input data free of trends, day-of-week effects, and other systematic behavior. Time series forecasting methods may be used to remove this behavior by subtracting forecasts from observations to form residuals for algorithmic input. This abstract examines and compares methods for the automatic preconditioning of health indicator data to enable the timely prospective monitoring required for effective syndromic surveillance.

 

Objective

For robust detection performance, alerting algorithms for biosurveillance require input data free of trends, day-of-week effects, and other systematic behavior. Time series forecasting methods may be used to remove this behavior by subtracting forecasts from observations to form residuals for algorithmic input. This abstract examines and compares methods for the automatic preconditioning of health indicator data to enable the timely prospective monitoring required for effective syndromic surveillance.

Referenced File
Submitted by elamb on

Epidemiological models that simulate the spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease within a herd are the foundation of decision support tools used by governments to help advise and inform strategy to combat outbreaks. Contact transmission data used to parameterize these models, contrary to assumption, contain a significant amount of variability and uncertainty. The implications of this finding suggest that the resultant model output might not accurately simulate the spread of an outbreak. If this is true, the potential impact due to uncertainty inherent to the decision support tools used by governments might be significant.

Objective

The objective of this project is to understand how parametric un- certainty within intra-herd Foot-and-Mouth disease epidemiological models affects the outbreak simulations and what implications this has on surveillance and control strategy and policy.

Submitted by dbedford on

Syndromic surveillance information can be a useful for the early recognition of outbreaks, acute public health events and in response to natural disasters. Inhalation of particulate matter from wildland fire smoke has been linked to various acute respiratory and cardiovascular health effects. Historically, wildfire disasters occur across Southern California on a recurring basis. During 2003 and 2007, wildfires ravaged San Diego County and resulted in historic levels of population evacuation, significant impact on air quality and loss of lives and infrastructure. In 2011, the National Institutes of HealthNational Institute of Environmental Health Sciences awarded Michigan Tech Research Institute a grant to address the impact of fire emissions on human health, within the context of a changing climate. San Diego County Public Health Services assisted on this project through assessment of population health impacts and provisioning of syndromic surveillance data for advanced modeling.

Objective

This presentation describes how syndromic surveillance information was combined with fire emission information and spatio-temporal fire occurrence data to evaluate, model and forecast climate change impacts on future fire scenarios.

Submitted by uysz on

A sudden surge in hospital admissions in public hospital during influenza peak season has been a challenge to healthcare and manpower planning. In Hong Kong, the timing of influenza peak seasons are variable and early short-term indication of possible surge may facilitate preparedness which could be translated into strategies such as early discharge or reallocation of extra hospital beds. In this study we explore the potential use of multiple routinely collected syndromic data in the forecast of hospital admissions.

 

Objective

This paper describes the potential use of multiple influenza surveillance data to forecast hospital admissions for respiratory diseases.

Submitted by hparton on

Each year, influenza results in increased Emergency Department crowding which can be mitigated through early detection linked to an appropriate response. Although current surveillance systems, such as Google Flu Trends, yield near real-time influenza surveillance, few demonstrate ability to forecast impending influenza cases.

Objective

We sought to develop a practical influenza forecast model, based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the number of influenza cases, thus allowing sufficient time to implement an intervention. Secondly, we evaluated how the addition of a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, would impact the forecasting capabilities of this model.

Submitted by teresa.hamby@d… on

The Epi Evident application was designed for clear and comprehensive visualization for monitoring, comparing, and forecasting notifiable diseases simultaneously across chosen countries. Epi Evident addresses the taxing analytical evaluation of how diseases behave differently across countries. This application provides a user-friendly platform with easily interpretable analytics which allows analysts to conduct biosurveillance with minimal user tasks. Developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Epi Evident utilizes time-series disease case count data from the Biosurveillance Ecosystem (BSVE) application Epi Archive. This diverse data source is filtered through the flexible Epi Evident workflow for forecast model building designed to integrate any entering combination of country and disease. The application aims to quickly inform analysts of anomalies in disease & location specific behavior and aid in evidence based decision making to help control or prevent disease outbreaks.

Objective:

Epi Evident is a web based application built to empower public health analysts by providing a platform that improves monitoring, comparing, and forecasting case counts and period prevalence of notifiable diseases for any scale jurisdiction at regional, country, or global-level. This proof of concept application development addresses improving visualization, access, situational awareness, and prediction of disease behavior.

Submitted by elamb on

Production animal health syndromic surveillance (PAHSyS) data are varied: there may be standardized ratios, proportions, counts of adverse events, categorical data and even qualitative ‘intelligence’ that may need to be aggregated up a hierarchy. PAHSyS provides some unique challenges for event detection. Livestock populations are made up of many subpopulations which are constantly moving around between farms and markets to slaughter. Pathogen expression often varies across production types and rearing-intensity levels. The complexity of animal production systems necessitates monitoring many time series; and makes the investigation of statistical signals imperative and at the same time difficult and resource intensive. Having multivariate surveillance methods that can work across multiple data streams to increase both sensitivity and specificity are much needed.

Objective

The question of how to aggregate animal health information derived from multiple data streams that vary in their specificity, scale, and behaviour is not trivial. Our view is that outbreak detection in a multivariate context should be viewed as a probabilistic prediction problem.

Submitted by teresa.hamby@d… on

The National Science and Technology Council, within the Executive Office of the President, established the Pandemic Prediction and Forecasting Science and Technology (PPFST) Working Group in 2013. The PPFST Working Group supports the US Predict the Next Pandemic Initiative, and serves as a forum to accelerate the development of federal infectious disease outbreak prediction and forecasting capabilities. Priorities include identification, evaluation, and integration of disparate biosurveillance and other data streams for prediction/forecasting; characterization of the decision context for US Government use of prediction/forecasting models; and development of a common US Government vision for federal prediction/forecasting capabilities. The Working Group comprises 18 federal departments and agencies, as well as the National Security Council, Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), and Office of Management and Budget. OSTP, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Department of Defense chair the Working Group.

Objective

To accelerate the development of US federal infectious disease outbreak prediction (i.e., identification of future time and place of a disease event) and forecasting (i.e., disease spread) capabilities.

Submitted by rmathes on

Evidence from over 100 years of epidemiological study demonstrates a consistent, negative association between health and economic prosperity. In many settings, it is clear that causal links exist between lower socioeconomic status and both reduced access to healthcare and increased disease burden. However, our study is the first to demonstrate that the increased disease burden in at-risk populations interacts with their reduced access to healthcare to hinder surveillance.

Objective

Improve situational awareness for influenza by combining multiple data sources to predict influenza outbreaks in at-risk populations.

Submitted by rmathes on
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