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Bayesian Methods

The surveillance task when faced with small area health data is more complex than in the time domain alone. Both changes in time and space must be considered. Such questions as ‘where will the infection spread to next?’ and, ‘when will the infection arrive here’, or ‘when do we see the end of the epidemic?’ are all spatially specific questions that are commonly of concern for both the public and public health agencies.  Hence both spatial and temporal dimensions of the surveillance task must be considered.