This paper describes a Bayesian algorithm for diagnosing the CDC Category A diseases, namely, anthrax, smallpox, tularemia, botulism and hemorrhagic fever, using emergency department chief complaints. The algorithm was evaluated on real data and on semi-synthetic data, and this paper summarizes the results of that evaluation.
Presented April 24, 2018.
*This article was selected as the second prize awardee of the 2018 ISDS Awards for Outstanding Research Articles in Biosurveillance in the category of "Scientific Achievement."
Anthrax is endemic and enzootic in Georgia with cases being registered since 1881 with over 2000 foci identified. Since 2005, 439 laboratory confirmed and 211 probable human cases and 190 laboratory confirmed animal cases have been registered. A case-control study performed in 2012 by the National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health (NCDC), National Food Agency (NFA) and the Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program (FELTP) found the main transition routes for human cases are slaughtering diseased animals and handling raw meat without protective equipment.
Anthrax is endemic and enzootic in Georgia with cases being registered since 1881 with over 2000 foci identified. Since 2005, 439 laboratory confirmed and 211 probable human cases and 190 laboratory confirmed animal cases have been registered. A case-control study performed in 2012 by the National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health (NCDC), National Food Agency (NFA) and the Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program (FELTP) found the main transition routes for human cases are slaughtering diseased animals and handling raw meat without protective equipment.
Cutaneous anthrax is endemic in Georgia. The EIDSS program captures notifications from 72 municipal public health centers. It links urgent notification, case investigation data, and laboratory data on an online basis. Eleven virulent and 4 non-virulent strains of B. anthracis have been isolated. Genotype GK 35 and GK 44 are strains found in the Turkish-Southern Caucasian region. It is hypothesized that human rates are caused by increased contact with infected animals. The recent re-introduction of animal vaccination programs in 2013-2014 heightens interest is establishing a defensible 6-year baseline trend in humans.
Objective
To characterize descriptive trends using data collected by the national Electronic Integrated Disease Surveillance System (EIDSS, 2008-2013).
Timely outbreak response requires effective early warning and surveillance systems. This investigation points out the important role that livestock keepers can play in veterinary surveillance. The investigation revealed that pastoralists had good traditional knowledge concerning livestock diseases in general and anthrax in particular. They provided detailed and accurate clinical descriptions of the disease, had greater appreciation of the risk factors associated with the disease, and showed a stronger recall of the outbreak history.
Anthrax is a widely distributed endemic infection in Georgia, affecting nearly the entire country. Many of the human cases that are annually registered are agriculturally acquired. Anthrax remains a public health risk due to active, resistant soil foci. More than 2,000 anthrax affected areas are registered in the country; around 10% of them are active. Recent reports have indicated an increase in the number of human cases as a result of contact with the environment, this is hypothesized to be due to expansion of affected foci, and this has raised concerns of the disease spreading to new areas. The control of anthrax foci is one of the main goals of the public health and veterinary service’s in Georgia. A surveillance program of anthrax foci across pipeline constructions in Georgia has been ongoing since 2003. Field trips are conducted by National Center for Disease Control and Public Health mobile teams to investigate each possible affected area across pipeline constructions.
Anthrax is an acute especially dangerous infectious disease of animals and humans. Bacillus anthracis is a potential bioterrorism tool. In Ukraine, there are favorable natural conditions for the spread of anthrax. There are 13.5 thousand of constantly anthrax-troubled points. Anthrax epidemic situation in Ukraine could be characterized as unstable. Because of the continuing reform of Ukrainian human health entities, the State Sanitary Epidemiological Service (SSES) has lost its control functions and is remaining in an uncertain state, which increases possible risks.