Reducing the Delay in Detecting an Influenza Epidemic with More Sensitive Case Detection Algorithms

Measures aimed at controlling epidemics of infectious diseases critically benefit from early outbreak recognition [1]. SSS seek early detection by focusing on pre-diagnostic symptoms that by themselves may not alarm clinicians. We have previously determined the performance of various Case Detector (CD) algorithms at finding cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) recorded in the electronic medical record of the Veterans Administration (VA) health system. In this work, we measure the impact of using CDs of increasing sensitivity but decreasing specificity on the time it takes a VA-based SSS to identify a modeled community-wide influenza outbreak. Objective This work uses a mathematical model of a plausible influenza epidemic to test the influence of different case-detection algorithms on the performance of a real-world syndromic surveillance system (SSS).