Real-time Forecasting of the 2014 Dengue Fever Season in Thailand

Dengue is a major cause of morbidity in Thailand. Annual outbreaks of varying sizes provide a particular challenge to the public health system because treatment of severe cases requires significant resources. Advanced warning of increases in incidence could help public health authorities allocate resources more effectively and mitigate the impact of epidemics.

Objective

To develop a statistical model for dengue fever surveillance that uses data from across Thailand to give early warning of developing epidemics.