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Real-time estimation and prediction for pandemic A/H1N1 (2009) in Japan


Unfortunately, confirmation and notification of all A/H1N1 (2009) patients in Japan was ceased on 24 July when the cumulative number of patients was about 5000. After that, as all suspected patients are not necessarily confirmed or reported, the only official surveillance was the sentinel surveillance for influenza-like-illness (ILI) patients from 5000 clinics accounting for almost 10% of all clinics and hospitals in Japan. However, because the surveillance results are reported weekly, it tends to lack timeliness. To collect and analyze the information in more timely manner, we, Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, developed a full automatic daily reporting system of ILI patients. Using this information, we had estimated Rv and predict its course in every week.


This paper summarized our effort for real-time estimation of pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm in Japan.

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