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Quantifying the potential benefit of early detection for preventing morbidity and mortality: a simulation study of cryptosporidium outbreak


Many studies evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of outbreak detection algorithms used in syndromic surveillance. Of greater interest, however, is defining the outcome associated with improved detection. In case of a waterborne cryptosporidiosis outbreak, public health interventions are aimed exclusively at preventing new infections, and not at medical treatment of infected individuals. The effectiveness of these interventions in reducing morbidity and mortality will depend on their timeliness, the level of compliance, and the duration of exposure to pathogen. In this work, we use simulation modeling to examine several scenarios of issuing a boil-water advisory (BWA) as a response to outbreak detection through syndromic surveillance, and quantify the possible benefits of earlier interventions.


To quantitatively assess the benefit of issuing a boil-water advisory for preventing morbidity and mortality from a waterborne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis.

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