Aerial transmission and direct contact are important factors for flu. Consequently, close contact with large groups of people, such as during mass transit, present opportunities for transmission. One protective method that decreases the probabilities of becoming ill is vaccination. The potential health impact of erminating subway service during a flu epidemic depends on both the potential for transmission and vaccination rates among riders. Mass transit, a major method of transit in NYC, exhibits a non-random distribution of riders based on demographics and socio-economic status. There is also a trend in vaccination rates by demography and socio-economic status. This analysis uses individual-based data on vaccination and ridership to separately predict vaccination and ridership for inclusion in agent-based models that can be used to assess impact of public health interventions.
Objective
Agent-based models (ABMs) have been developed to simulate epidemics including smallpox and pandemic flu. The ABM approach is an effective method to assess the potential impact of interventions on disease spread. Integrating the ABM approach with syndromic surveillance data provides potential benefits such as permitting a realistic specification of some critical model contact parameters, and permitting synthetic outbreaks to be generated with extremely fine resolution (e.g., age, gender, and address). This would provide the ability to test various clustering detection algorithms – a key component of syndromic surveillance methods. RTI International (the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) informatics group) and NYC DOHMH (a premier syndromic surveillance research center) collaborated to create a NYC-ABM of flu transmission. This poster describes implementation of several features required for accurate model specification, including assigning immunization rates and subway ridership. Incorporating subway ridership is of great interest, because a large subway system, like the NYC system, has never been investigated as a contributor of disease spread.