The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) uses the National Poison Data System (NPDS) to conduct surveillance of calls to United States poison centers (PCs) to identify clusters of reports of hazardous exposures and illnesses. NPDS stores basic information from PC calls including call type (information request only or call reporting a possible chemical exposure), exposure agent, demographics, clinical, and other variables.
CDC looks for anomalies in PC data by using automated algorithms to analyze call and clinical effect volume, and by identifying calls reporting exposures to pre-specified high priority agents. Algorithms analyzing call and clinical effect volume identify anomalies when the number of calls exceeds a threshold using the historical limits method (HLM). Clinical toxicologists and epidemiologists at the American Association of Poison Control Centers and CDC apply standardized criteria to determine if the anomaly is a potential incident of public health significance (IPHS) and then notify the respective health departments and PCs as needed. Discussions with surveillance system users and analysis of past IPHS determined that call volume-based surveillance results in a high proportion of false positive anomalies. A study assessing the positive predictive value (PPV) of this approach determined that fewer than four percent of anomalies over a five-year period were IPHS.1 A low PPV can cause an unnecessary waste of staff time and resources. We hypothesized that first stratifying call volume by exposure category would reduce the number of false positives. With the help of medical toxicologists, we created 20 toxicologically-relevant exposure categories to test this hypothesis.
Objective
Our objective was to determine if the detection performance of current surveillance algorithms to detect call clusters is improved by stratifying by exposure category.