A pandemic caused by influenza A/H5N1 or another novel strain could kill millions of people and devastate economies worldwide. Recent computer simulations suggest that an emerging influenza pandemic might be contained in Southeast Asia through rapid detection, antiviral distribution, and other interventions [1]. To facilitate containment, the World Health Organization (WHO) has established large, global antiviral stockpiles and called on countries to develop rapid pandemic detection and response protocols [2]. However, developing countries in Southeast Asia would face significant challenges in containing an emerging pandemic. Limited surveillance coverage and diagnostic capabilities; poor communication and transportation infrastructure; and lack of resources to investigate outbreaks could cause critical delays in pandemic recognition. Wealthy countries have committed substantial funds to improve pandemic detection and response in developing countries, but tools to guide system planning, evaluation, and enhancement in such places are lacking.
Objective
We propose a framework for evaluating the ability of syndromic, laboratory-based, and other public health surveillance systems to contain an emerging influenza pandemic influenza in developing countries, and apply the framework to systems in Laos.