In previous work, we described a non-disease-specific outbreak simulator for the evaluation of outbreak detection algorithms. This Template-Driven Simulator generates disease patterns using user-defined template functions. Estimation of a template function from real outbreak data would enable researchers to repetitively simulate outbreaks that resemble a single real outbreak. These simulated outbreaks can then be used to evaluate outbreak detection algorithms. To demonstrate template estimation, we employ BARD, a disease-specific outbreak model for outdoor aerosol release of B. anthracis. It uses epidemiological and atmospheric dispersion models in conjunction with geographical and meteorological data to generate anthrax cases. The home census block group and time of visit to an emergency department are available for each simulated case.
Objective
In previous work, we developed a Template-Driven Simulator, which is a non-disease specific outbreak simulator that uses templates to describe the temporal or spatial-temporal pattern of an outbreak. Here we address the problem of estimating the template from outbreak data. We then conduct a limited validation of the outbreak simulation model by estimating the template using outbreak data generated from BARD, a sophisticated state-of-the-art anthrax outbreak simulator and detector. This limited validation confirms that the outbreak simulator is capable of generating complicated disease outbreak patterns for evaluating outbreak detection algorithms.