The basic reproduction number represents the number of secondary infections expected to be caused by an infectious individual introduced into an entirely susceptible population. It is a fundamental measure used to characterize infectious disease outbreaks and is essential in developing mathematical models to determine appropriate interventions. Much work has been done to investigate methods for estimating the basic reproduction number during the early stages of infectious disease outbreaks. However, these methods often require data that may not be readily available at the beginning of an outbreak. An approach developed by Becker has been widely used to estimate the basic reproduction number using only the final case count and size of the at-risk population. A modification to this approach is proposed that allows estimates to be obtained earlier in an outbreak using only the current case count, number currently ill, and the size of the at-risk population.
Objective
To present a modification to an established approach to estimating the basic reproduction number to allow estimates to be obtained at any point during an outbreak using only the current case count, number currently ill, and the size of the at-risk population.