A devastating cholera outbreak began in Haiti in 2010. Sequencing of Vibrio cholerae isolates showed that the epidemic was likely the result of the introduction of cholera from a distant geographic source. The same strain of cholera was detected in other countries within 100 days. The unique instigation and geographic spread of this epidemic highlight the need for improvements in timely global outbreak surveillance. Novel information sources have been shown to provide early information about public health events and disease epidemiology. Particularly, volume of Internet metrics such as web searches or micro-blogs have been shown to be a good corollary for public health events. In this study, we evaluate geographic trends in online social media following an infectious disease outbreak to determine whether this may enable prediction of secondary outbreak locations.
Objective
To evaluate the association between and develop a risk model relating geographic trends of social media and spread of an infectious disease outbreak.