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Kigozi Ruth

In 1911, Christophers developed an early-warning system for malaria epidemics in Punjab based on rainfall, fever-related deaths and wheat prices. Since that initial system, researchers and practitioners have continued to search for determinants of spatial and temporal variability of malaria to improve systems for forecasting disease burden. Malaria thrives in poor tropical and subtropical countries where resources are limited. Accurate disease prediction and early warning of increased disease burden can provide public health and clinical health services with the information needed to implement targeted approaches for malaria control and prevention that make effective use of limited resources. Malaria forecasting models do not typically consider clinical predictors, such as type of antimalarial treatment, in the forecasting models. 

Objective

The objective of the research was to identify the most accurate models for forecasting malaria at six different sentinel sites in Uganda, using environmental and clinical data sources.

Submitted by elamb on

The catchment area of a health-care facility is used to assess health service utilization and calculate population-based rates of disease. Current approaches for catchment definition have significant limitations such as being based solely on distance from the facility or using an arbitrary threshold for inclusion.

Objective

We propose a simple statistical method, the cumulative case ratio, for defining a catchment area using surveillance data.

Submitted by rmathes on

Multiple agencies are involved in global disease surveillance and coordination of activities is essential to achieve broad public health impact. Multiple examples of effective and collaborative initiatives exist. The WHO/AFRO developed Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) framework, adopted by 43 of the 46 AFRO member states and applied in other WHO regions, was the first framework designed to strengthen national disease surveillance and response systems. The WHO International Health Regulations (IHR) 2005 are an agreement between 196 countries to prevent, detect and respond to the international spread of disease. In 2013 CDC worked with Uganda and Vietnam to demonstrate the development of surveillance, laboratory, and emergency response center capacity and link data systems for six outbreak prone diseases. More recently, the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) was launched with the support of 28 countries, WHO, OIE and FAO just as Ebola was beginning to emerge in West Africa. This panel brings together CDC, local implementing partners, academic technical partners, and international non-government donor to discuss current and evolving strategies for prevention, detection, and response activities needed for global health security. 

Objective

The session will discuss strategies for outbreak prevention, detection, and response for global health security and explore how these activities inform both domestic and international initiatives. Innovations in epidemiology, laboratory, informatics, investment, and coordination for disease surveillance will be discussed. 

Submitted by Magou on
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