NPDS is a near real-time surveillance system and national database operated by the American Association of Poison Control Centers. NPDS receives records of all calls made to the 55 regional US poison centers (PCs). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) use NPDS to 1) provide public health surveillance for chemical, radiological and biological exposures and illnesses, 2) identify early markers of chemical, radiological, and biological incidents, and 3) find potential cases and enhance situational awareness during a known incident. Anomalies are reviewed daily by a distributed team of PC medical and clinical toxicologists for potential incidents of public health significance (IPHS). Information on anomalies elevated to IPHS is promptly relayed to state epidemiologists or other designated officials for situational awareness and public health response.
Current NPDS surveillance algorithms utilize the Historical Limits Method, which identifies a data anomaly when call volumes exceed a statistical threshold derived from multiple years of historical data. Alternative analysis tools such as those employed by ESSENCE and other computerized data surveillance systems have been sought to enhance NPDS signal analysis capability. Technical improvements have been implemented in 2013 to expand NPDS surveillance capabilities but have not been thoroughly tested. Moreover, other data aberration detection algorithms, such as temporal scan statistics, have not yet been tested on real-time poison center data.
Objective
To compare the effectiveness of current surveillance algorithms used in the National Poison Data System (NPDS) to identify incidents of potential public health significance with 1) new algorithms using expanded NPDS surveillance capabilities and 2) methods beyond the NPDS’ generalized historical limits model.