Adjustment for Baseline Level of Dengue Cases Due to Increased Testing in Singapore

Dengue is endemic in Singapore, with epidemics of increasing magnitude occurring on a six-year cycle in 1986/7, 1992, 1998, 2004/5, 2007 and 2013. The incidence per 100,000 population ranged from 87.2 to 105.6 in 2009-20121 , and surged to 410.6 in 2013. The mean weekly number of dengue cases over a five-year period provides an indication of the baseline level. We illustrate an adjustment that has been made to the computation of the baseline level due to increased testing for dengue in 2013.

Objective

To make adjustment of historical trends to accurately reflect the baseline level of dengue cases in Singapore, in view of increased testing for dengue in 2013.